AUGUST 23, 2011
BRUCE A. BRENNAN BLOG FROM THE WORLD AND MY MIND
The news as I see it and the views as I want them.
August 23 is … National Spongecake Day
Is this day about a kid’s cartoon?
Libya! What do we do now? Should we capture Ghaddaffi, lock him up for a few months then bring him into an alleged Courtroom, strapped to a gurney and caged like a zoo animal for a public trial. That appears to be working so well in Egypt.
Marie Antoinette never said, “Let them eat cake.”, she was not a blonde and was not promiscuous. She never milked her own cows, was not really French and did not spend France into bankruptcy by her love of fashion. She was not the power behind King Louis XVI. He was his own man and did not seek or care much for Marie’s advice other than in a few minor job appointments. And now you know.
HURRICANR IRENE, 2011, film at eleven.
A hurricane has not hit the mainland United States in three years. The weather junkies are trying to become relevant again by making a big deal out of Irene. Hurricane Irene cut power to more than a million people in Puerto Rico, downing trees and flooding streets, before heading out over warm ocean water Monday on a path that could take it to the U.S. mainland by the end of the week. There were no reports of deaths of major injuries in Puerto Rico, but Gov. Luis Fortuno declared a state of emergency and urged people to stay indoors to avoid downed power lines, flooded streets and other hazards. "This isn't the time to go out to find out what happened ... This is the time stay in your homes," Fortuno said at a news conference.
The first hurricane of the Atlantic storm season posed an immediate threat to the northeastern coast of the Dominican Republic, though the center of the hurricane was expected to miss neighboring Haiti, which shares the island of Hispaniola. Nearly 600,000 Haitians are still homeless due to the January 2010 earthquake and that country could still see heavy rain and tropical-storm-force winds, said Dennis Feltgen, a spokesman for the U.S. National Hurricane Center in Miami.
"We don't expect to this to get ripped up over the mountains of Hispaniola," Feltgen said. "We expect it to remain a hurricane." The storm was expected to head toward the Bahamas and authorities warned people in Florida, Georgia and South Carolina to follow it closely since its path was uncertain. The forecast track would carry it to just off the Florida coast by Friday morning. Authorities in Palm Beach County directed staffers to stop routine operations Monday and switch to storm preparations, including checks on generators and communications equipment.
"Hurricane preparations are pretty much the order of the day," said Mike Geier, radiological emergency preparedness planner. "We go through a pretty extensive checklist. It's probably three pages long."
Hurricane Irene centered about 90 miles (140 kilometers) west-northwest of San Juan Monday morning and it was moving toward the west-northwest at 14 mph (22 kph). It had maximum sustained winds of about 80 mph (130 kph), the Hurricane Center reported.
The price of gasoline spiked when the Libyan crisis, manufactured by Europe and the United States, first started. Prices have never fallen to the levels they were at before the headlines started. Brent crude prices fell to near $107 a barrel on Monday after Libyan rebels captured most of the country's capital, boosting hopes the OPEC nation's oil exports could resume soon. The price of gasoline never falls as quick as it raises and rarely goes back to pre-crisis levels. There is no legitimate explanation for that fact just some bean-counters excuse.
Rebels overran a large part of Tripoli after a quick advance as defense of Moammar Gadhafi's regime collapsed. Gadhafi's whereabouts were unknown while two of his sons were captured by rebels. Prospects of an end to the Libyan civil war lifted hopes that the country would be able to gradually bring daily output back to pre-crisis levels of 1.6 million barrels of oil. However, estimates on how long that will take varied from several weeks to a full year. Italian Foreign Minister Franco Frattini said Monday that Eni technicians were already working to restart oil and natural gas production from the country. Eni is the largest foreign producer in Libya, and most of the plants were built by its subsidiary Saipem. Frattini told RAI state television that Eni workers have been called to Bengazi to reactivate plants and that there were technical consultations already last week.
Eni declined to elaborate on the comments, but noted that restarting production could take some time – a couple months for natural gas and even a year for oil. By contrast, Carsten Fritsch, an analyst with Commerzbank, noted that rebels expect output to resume within three weeks of Gadhafi being toppled. The speed with which production can be restarted depends on the state of infrastructure and how quickly oil companies move workers back to Libya. Pressure also needs to be built up in the fields and pipelines, meaning output would resume incrementally. News of the rebels' capture of Tripoli weighed on Brent crude prices, with the benchmark contract down $1.37 per barrel to $107.25 on the ICE Futures exchange in London by afternoon European time.
The benchmark U.S. oil contract on the New York Mercantile Exchange, however, was up slightly – 50 cents to $82.76 a barrel. Brent has been at unusual premium to the U.S. crude futures contract for months, in large part due to the fact that Europe relies more than the U.S. on oil from Africa, including Libyan imports. "If the Gadhafi regime falls, Libyan oil production should gradually resume and European markets would directly benefit from that," said Victor Shum, an analyst with energy consultant Purvin & Gertz in Singapore. "Having more supply while the global economy is under threat should put downward pressure on oil prices."
Gas and oil production has been mostly halted in Libya since February. Although Libyan oil amounted to less than 2 percent of world demand, its loss affected prices because of its high quality and suitability for European refineries. Eni evacuated all of its personnel in Libya in March, but has said no damage has been reported to the plants and pipelines and that it would be technically able to resume output close to pre-crisis levels once the situation had returned to normal. Eni produced 273,000 barrels of oil and natural gas in 2010 in Libya, about 15 percent of the company's worldwide production. Shares in the company were up 5 percent to euro13.10.
Repsol, another big producer in Libya, was not reachable for comment. Fears of an economic slowdown in the U.S. and Europe have weighed heavily on energy prices in recent weeks and are expected to remain key to market sentiment in the longer term, although the Libyan developments dominated trading on Monday. "In the coming days, the price could drop further towards $100 a barrel," said Fritsch, referring to Brent crude. In other Nymex trading for October contracts, heating oil fell 1 cent to $2.89 per gallon and gasoline futures dropped 4 cents to $2.81 per gallon. Natural gas for September delivery sank 4 cents to $3.90 per 1,000 cubic feet.
I am sure BP will make plenty of money but, of course, they will lie about it. More tomorrow.
Just a couple of thoughts I had and you should too or at least think about.
BRUCE A. BRENNAN
DEKALB, IL 60115
COPYRIGHT 2011
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Book Titles:
Holmes the Ripper
A Revengeful Mix of Short Fiction
"The empires of the future are the empires of the mind." - Sir Winston Churchill
